Please Excuse My Randomness

But JD Drew is rated 100 in a new baseball video game.

100.

I hate everything.

 FASTEST EDIT/CORRECTION EVER: Apparently, like, everyone in the game is rated 100, including Garret Atkins (??????????). And also, Shawn Green and Cliff Floyd are rated 98.

Maybe we should start a blog about stupid video game designers?

Ladies & Gentlemen, I Present The DTBGI

Unbeknownst to the entire baseball community, ESPN’s Peter Gammons has been hard at work at developing a revolutionary new statistic. I know, I know – like baseball needs a new statistic. VORP, WARP1, WARP3, OPS, EqA. When will it all end?

The good news is that Gammons’ new statistic is different from all the others in that it is completely subjective, unquantifiable, and open to intense debate. It is based on nothing but perception and, potentially, bias. Sounds great!

Without further ado, I present to you the Desire To Be Great Index (DTBGI for short).

To be serious for a moment, I have to come clean and reveal that the main impetus behind this post is an asinine swipe at a current Yankee pitcher. In the column, Gammons talks about Roger Clemens’ famous drive, work ethic, devotion to his craft, etc. Fine. But then he just starts randomly mentioning current pitchers and subsequently assesses their respective DTBGIs. I guess that’s okay, even though it is superduperextremelyhypersubjective. Then he says:

“Pedro Martinez always wanted to be great, but Mike Mussina, who is a borderline Cooperstown candidate, never did.”

Gammons has apparently used his sophisticated and advanced mathematical methods and determined that Mike Mussina’s DTBGI is low. If only Mussina had wanted, prayed, yearned a little more to be great, then he would have been a better pitcher. If only he had exchanged the time spent practicing his crazy multitude of pitches, getting in good shape, and maximizing his talent for a few more moments of serious inner contemplation, then Mussina would be better at playing baseball.

I think you get my point. I agree with Gammons that there are players in baseball – and every sport – who are obviously less devoted than others. Ricky Williams in football (marijuana), Carl Pavano in baseball (lack of penis), even Shaq (questionable physical fitness) in basketball. But let’s not get carried away here, Gammons. Mussina has put up a 125 ERA+, 3.63 ERA, 2572/719 BB/K, and 239 W (for those of you who like that stat) in his career. He’s a really good pitcher.

Gammons, in this instance, attributes the difference between Pedro Martinez and Mike Mussina to the Desire To Be Great. It has nothing to do with that. It has everything to do with talent. Pedro Martinez is a better pitcher than Mike Mussina. Period. One is superb, and the other is very good, end of story. Neither one would have had this much success if they didn’t want to be great at their profession. Gammons’ statement makes Mussina sound like a indifferent slacker, and Pedro like a man of destiny. They just have different levels of talent.

“He sees the fire that’s driven Daisuke Matsuzaka since he was in high school. He sees it in Josh Beckett, embarrassed by a 5.01 ERA as he works on his changeup to move hitters’ feet and his two-seamer to alter eye level. Farrell sees it in Jonathan Papelbon, and believes Jon Lester may have the greatest drive of them all.”

He’s just trying to piss me off here. Apparently Matsuzaka, Beckett, Papelbon, and Lester all have DTBGIs that are incalculably high. Despite the fact that Matsuzaka has never pitched in MLB, Beckett has never had one full good season, Papelbon has never started full-time, and Lester is coming off cancer treatment (and was awful before his diagnosis), they all have DTBGIs higher than Mussina (who has had two below average years in his healthy, durable 16 year career). Mussina is such a slacker.

This entire column is incredibly subjective. I’m just going to stop writing now.

I Swear, I’ll Stop Soon

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick:

“Mike (FL): Mussina, Wang, Pettite, Hughes, Igawa, Pavano… How good can the Yanks staff be this season?

Jerry Crasnick: Mike, I don’t have a whole lot of faith in Pavano, and Igawa is obviously a mystery at this point. Given that we’re a week into camp and the New York papers are already hyping Philip Hughes, that’s a little scary. The Red Sox have reason to feel a lot better about their rotation than the Yankees right now.”

I want to make a few things clear. Firstly, I do not think the Red Sox’ rotation will be terrible. I think it will be adequate. Secondly, I do not think that the Yankees’ rotation will be lights-out. I think it will be above average. But the main point of all these posts about the Red Sox’ rotation is not to bash it. The point is to show the often completely inane reasoning – or lack thereof – behind certain analysts’ opinions. I just don’t know how people like Crasnick can look at the Red Sox’ starting pitchers and ignore: (1) the overweight 40 year old power pitcher who is showing signs of decline (2) the Japanese starter who has never pitched against this kind of competition (3) the 26 year old with a 5.00 ERA, an alarming HR rate, and no secondary pitches and (4) the former reliever with shoulder problems who will have his innings more than doubled this year.

Crasnick’s thinking is inexplicable. Igawa and Matsuzaka – for all intents and purposes – are the same right now (their numbers in Japan are quite comparable, actually). So if Crasnick says that Igawa is a mystery at this point, then so is Matsuzaka. Neither of them has done this before. I don’t have a lot of faith in Pavano either, but it seems like he’s finally gotten his act together. In his 17 starts before his injuries, he had a 4.77 ERA. That’s better than Beckett. And don’t even get me started on Crasnick’s argument against Hughes. The fact that Hughes is being hyped is scary? This means he’s not the consensus #2 overall prospect in baseball right now? This negates how scary-good he is? You’ve got to be kidding me. The idea that Hughes is less of a pitcher because he is getting attention for his incredible talent is unfathomably moronic.

No, Jerry Crasnick, the Red Sox do not have reason to feel a lot better about their rotation than the Yankees right now. The fact is, we don’t know which team has the advantage. But usually when we don’t know something, we make an educated guess based on evidence, information and past experience. This is my primary beef with the sportswriting community: its continual inability to look at all the readily available information and put forth an informed opinion. I don’t care if people think the Red Sox are better than the Yankees. That’s fine. But they should have solid reasoning behind it – or any argument, for that better. Crasnick’s response is just another example of the sort of laziness (stupidity?) that drives me crazy.

I swear, I’m done with the Red Sox’ rotation stuff. Maybe.

David Ortiz Is Fat And Lovable And Clutch

Which is why he can get away with saying this.

“I don’t remember what Matsuzaka looked like till I saw him this winter,” Ortiz said. “I always tell people that everybody looks the same to me in Japan.”

[Ortiz] just needs to be able to tell the difference between [Matsuzaka and Okajima], he joked, saying, “I know there’s going to be one pitching every five days and another one coming into the game every day.”

You fat, jolly, lovable man. Imagine if A-Rod said this. He would have to put on 80 pounds, come up with a homoerotic/questionable nickname for himself, and grin like an idiot all the time - then he would be David Ortiz, and then he could get away with being an ignoramus.

Check Out This Week’s Onion Sports Section

Money Quote: “Clint Bowyer to Race Upside-Down, On Fire For Rest of Season”

I Hate The Cardinals Now

Until someone explains this.

I’ll Take Basic Research For $500 Please, Alex

ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark says the Red Sox are the offseason’s most improved AL team. Ok, cool. Let’s look at his reasoning, which I’m sure is well-researched and defensible and all that stuff.

“They’ve responded to their third-place hangover by addressing their leadoff issues (Julio Lugo)…”

Hmm, that looks iffy. Most managers should want someone who is good at getting on base in the leadoff spot. How good is Lugo at getting on base? Not amazing – career .340 OBP, compared to the league average OBP of .341 during his career. But that’s cool, maybe his SLG makes up for it. Wait, no, he’s slugged .402 in his career, compared to the .437 average. Are we sure the Red Sox have really addressed their leadoff issues?

“…bullpen troubles (Brendan Donnelly, Hideki Okajima, J.C. Romero, Joel Pineiro, Runelvys Hernandez)…”

Whoa, whoa, whoa. No. Donnelly is fine – 1.34 WHIP, 3.94 ERA, 53/28 K/BB. He’s alright. But…

Okajima has never pitched before in MLB, and is projected to put up a 1.40-ish WHIP, and a 4.5o-ish ERA. Not good. Romero had a horrendous 2006 season, posting a 1.76 WHIP and a 6.71 ERA. Although there is statistical reason to believe that he suffered bad luck in 2006, average luck would have mad him merely bad, not horrendous. Pineiro had a 1.65 WHIP and a 6.35 ERA – in 165 innings. The larger sample size of innings makes this especially damning. Hernandez is just as bad – 1.76 WHIP and 6.48 ERA in 109 innings. Yup, the Red Sox’ bullpen troubles have been solved.

“…outfield questions (J.D. Drew)…”

Maybe. If (big, gigantic, monolithic ”if”) he’s healthy, yes. If he’s injured, no.

“…and International Man of Mystery deficit (Daisuke Matsuzaka).”

What does that even mean? Just say they signed a good pitcher. Jesus.

“If they find a closer and everything else works, this could be the most dangerous team in baseball.”

Do you hear that America? If the Red Sox find a closer, and all the questions about their bullpen, starting rotation, catcher, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, centerfielder, and rightfielder are answered successfully, then they could be the most dangerous team in baseball!

Let’s play a game where we say an outrageous, bordering on impossible conditional statement that relies on an extremely unlikely chain of events occurring for it to be true. I’ll start: if my TV sheds its metal coating, replaces it with tough skin, grows to 60 feet tall, sprouts small useless hands and a tail, and develops legs and sharp teeth, it would be a tyrannosaurus rex. Your turn!

F.A.Q. Is Up

Hey everyone,

 Thanks to all four of you (hi Mom!!) for your patience. The FAQ section is now up with explanations for all these crazy, random, ridiculous statistics that you’ve been tolerating so far. It also has brief explanations of why we chose to use said statistics instead of older, more traditional ones. Anyway, check it out since it should make this site more enjoyable (if that’s humanly possible, I know).

Thanks again for reading!

Surprise!

So Taguchi apparently never expects anything to happen ever.

There Is No Way Things Are This Bad In Colorado

Per ESPN.com’s Spring Training notes:

“Other serious candidates to become [the Rockies'] designated No. 1 starting pitcher are Jeff Francis and Rodrigo Lopez.”

Rodrigo Lopez (2006): 189 IP, 234 H, 32 HR, 136 K, 59 BB, 5.91 ERA, 1.55 WHIP

I refuse to believe this is true.