LaPhonso Ellis (left) was wrong.
On January 27th, ESPN college basketball analyst LaPhonso Ellis was discussing Michigan State’s tough home loss to in-state rival Michigan. The loss dropped the Spartans to 12-8, and although that record suggests a certain amount of pessimism, Ellis was undeterred. He spoke breathlessly about senior point guard Kalin Lucas’ performance against the Wolverines. Certainly, Lucas’ 27 points on 10 of 18 shooting deserved praise. But Ellis couldn’t stop himself, and as the segment wrapped up, he said the following:
A torn Achilles takes a long time to come back from. What you saw tonight was Kalin Lucas beginning to turn that corner, even a year [after the injury]. You can expect his numbers to go up over the next six weeks.
Well, it is now then. Michigan State has lost their regular season finale to Michigan (again), and the regular season statistics are now in the books. Let’s see how Ellis’ confident prediction fared:
- Kalin Lucas, 11/12-1/27: 43.3% FG, 1.34 : 1 assist-to-turnover ratio
- Kalin Lucas, 1/28-3/5: 43.3% FG, 1.22 : 1 assist-to-turnover ratio
Maybe Lucas rebounded or defended better since January 27th. But I think we can agree that the former isn’t really asked of him, and the latter isn’t quantifiable, so it can’t be lumped into Ellis’ “numbers.” To me, it looks like Lucas’ post-prediction play is of the exact same quality as his pre-prediction play.
