Progress, Thy Name Is Crasnick

I have gone on the record several times in my criticism of modern bullpen management. I’ve also used this space to question ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick and his professional aptitude. So you can imagine my surprise when I discovered this exchange from Friday’s chat on ESPN.com:

Goose (Chicago): Why isn’t JP Howell closing in TB? Because he is lefty? Righties are hitting .169 against him and he is clearly the best reliever in that bullpen right now. 

Jerry Crasnick: Goose, Joe Maddon seems to use J.P. Howell in a lot of tough jams in the seventh and eighth. If he starts closing with Howell, it’s just going to create a bigger void earlier in the game. 

Mr. Crasnick appears to suggest that baseball games might reach critical junctures in innings other than the 9th, and that baseball managers should adjust their deployment of relievers accordingly. Needless to say, this suggestions makes me extraordinarily happy. I can only hope that opinions like this continue to make the transition from “unorthodox thinking” to “intelligent management.”

Fire Jerry Crasnick?

Ladies and gentlemen, we have found the single laziest answer by an “expert” analysis in “expert” analysis history. I present to you, from yesterday’s ESPN.com chat with Jerry Crasnick, the new nadir of sports insight:

Patrick (Brooklyn, NY): Jorge Posada: Overrated, Hall of Famer, or somewhere in between?

Jerry Crasnick: Patrick, My initial knee jerk reaction is, “Somewhere in between.” But I haven’t checked him out on Baseball-Reference.com lately.

It is definitely way too demanding to ask Mr. Crasnick to check out Jorge Posada’s statistics during a chat in which he is asked baseball questions about baseball players. Apparently, if you don’t catch Mr. Crasnick on a day when he happened to look at a certain player’s numbers, you have no chance in hell of getting your question answered because, well, he just hasn’t seen the player’s numbers lately. But wait!

Ravi (NY): Hi Jerry- I’ve never had a question answered, and I’m hoping you can end that streak for me….Ryan Church: Is his fast start a fluke, or is his production vs lefties (.324/.405/.514) a product of playing everyday? I know Hojo has worked with him to reduce the uppercut in his swing.

Jerry Crasnick: Ravi, Welcome to the chat. Ryan Church has a .752 career OPS against lefties, so it’s not as if he’s been an automatic out against them. If Church says that Howard Johnson has had a positive impact on his performance, you have to believe that’s the case. In Washington, the Nats always thought Church had potential, but they were frustrated with his inability to stay on the field because of nagging injuries. I think this is just a combination of maturity, health and opportunity. (emphasis mine)

I can guarantee you that Mr. Crasnick did not know, off the top of his head, that Ryan Church has a .752 career OPS against lefties. He looked that up on a website. The type of website he visited also probably had Jorge Posada’s career statistics that he could have used to answer Patrick from Brooklyn’s question. But no, that is way too much work. Shame on you, Patrick from Brooklyn. Shame on you.

Fire Jerry Crasnick?

Just Some Quickies

These are some of the more questionable/unsubstantiated responses from ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick in his chat today.

Rob (DC): A certain rival website picked the Pads to be 3rd in the West, I know that will really be a competetive division, but to me they have by far the best staff in the NL and the hitting should be a smidge better. Am I missing something?

Jerry: I’m just not sure where the offense will come from. They’re counting on guys like Sledge, Kouzmanoff, Josh Bard and a declining Brian Giles, who doesn’t have much power anymore. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the five teams in the NL West separated by a 10-game blanket, so preseason predictions mean even less than usual in that division.

F- for research, Jerry. I’m not saying the Padres will be a good offensive team this year, but you completely neglected to mention Marcus Giles, Mike Cameron, Khalil Greene and Adrian Gonzalez. The neglected quartet’s projected average VORP (which measures only offense) is 27.8. The quartet you mentioned has a projected average VORP of 25.1. That means, Jerry, that you completely whiffed on identifying the team’s most important offensive players. Maybe the offense will come from them. Just a thought.

Steiny (NYC): What are your early World Series predictions?

Jerry: My early World Series prediction is Boston over Atlanta. (And no, this isn’t East Coast, ESPN bias). I just like the Red Sox rotation and the move of Papelbon back to closer.

Now, read this:

San Diego, CA: What are the Indians’ chances this year? Jerry: I know the Indians are a fashionable pick in the AL Central, but I still don’t think they’re as good as
Detroit. And I’m not sold on that bullpen.

I have no idea how Crasnick can pick the Red Sox to make the World Series with their horrendous bullpen (yes I’m including Papelbon), but pick against the Indians because of their (admittedly) subpar bullpen. Remember, the rotation he likes so much is now Papelbon-less. Well, maybe he’s picking Boston because they have a better offense that can overcome their horrendous, shitty, godawful bullpen. Let’s see, Baseball Prospectus projects the Red Sox to score 894 runs, and give up 804. They project the Indians to score 858, and allow 763. Red Sox run differential = 90; Indians’ = 95. Nope, not good enough. In fact, BP projects each team to finish with a 90-72 record, based on these differentials.

The Indians and Red Sox are of about equal quality teams. I don’t disagree with Crasnick in that the Red Sox could get to the World Series, and that the Indians might not make the playoffs. This is, after all, baseball. Anything can happen. But considering all the (readily available) information that even a lazy college kid (that would be me) can find, Crasnick’s answers to these two questions are pretty inconsistent. And also, it’s not like it’s his job or anything. Oh wait.

I Swear, I’ll Stop Soon

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick:

“Mike (FL): Mussina, Wang, Pettite, Hughes, Igawa, Pavano… How good can the Yanks staff be this season?

Jerry Crasnick: Mike, I don’t have a whole lot of faith in Pavano, and Igawa is obviously a mystery at this point. Given that we’re a week into camp and the New York papers are already hyping Philip Hughes, that’s a little scary. The Red Sox have reason to feel a lot better about their rotation than the Yankees right now.”

I want to make a few things clear. Firstly, I do not think the Red Sox’ rotation will be terrible. I think it will be adequate. Secondly, I do not think that the Yankees’ rotation will be lights-out. I think it will be above average. But the main point of all these posts about the Red Sox’ rotation is not to bash it. The point is to show the often completely inane reasoning – or lack thereof – behind certain analysts’ opinions. I just don’t know how people like Crasnick can look at the Red Sox’ starting pitchers and ignore: (1) the overweight 40 year old power pitcher who is showing signs of decline (2) the Japanese starter who has never pitched against this kind of competition (3) the 26 year old with a 5.00 ERA, an alarming HR rate, and no secondary pitches and (4) the former reliever with shoulder problems who will have his innings more than doubled this year.

Crasnick’s thinking is inexplicable. Igawa and Matsuzaka – for all intents and purposes – are the same right now (their numbers in Japan are quite comparable, actually). So if Crasnick says that Igawa is a mystery at this point, then so is Matsuzaka. Neither of them has done this before. I don’t have a lot of faith in Pavano either, but it seems like he’s finally gotten his act together. In his 17 starts before his injuries, he had a 4.77 ERA. That’s better than Beckett. And don’t even get me started on Crasnick’s argument against Hughes. The fact that Hughes is being hyped is scary? This means he’s not the consensus #2 overall prospect in baseball right now? This negates how scary-good he is? You’ve got to be kidding me. The idea that Hughes is less of a pitcher because he is getting attention for his incredible talent is unfathomably moronic.

No, Jerry Crasnick, the Red Sox do not have reason to feel a lot better about their rotation than the Yankees right now. The fact is, we don’t know which team has the advantage. But usually when we don’t know something, we make an educated guess based on evidence, information and past experience. This is my primary beef with the sportswriting community: its continual inability to look at all the readily available information and put forth an informed opinion. I don’t care if people think the Red Sox are better than the Yankees. That’s fine. But they should have solid reasoning behind it – or any argument, for that better. Crasnick’s response is just another example of the sort of laziness (stupidity?) that drives me crazy.

I swear, I’m done with the Red Sox’ rotation stuff. Maybe.