Steve Lavin’s Analysis Doesn’t Quite Cut It

During February 10th’s Michigan State-Michigan game, ESPN’s color-commentator Steve Lavin made a fairly large generalization about college basketball teams:

“This is the time of year when teams start to hit a wall. In January, you’ve got a hop in your step, everyone is 0-0 coming out of non-conference play. In March, you’ve got tournaments. But February is when teams slow down, particularly younger teams.”

Initially, I yielded two questions from Lavin’s comment. The first: do teams, in fact, lose more games in February than in other months? Second: If so, is the effect greater in younger teams than their older counterparts?

After explaining the context, I discussed these questions with one of my closest and brightest friends. This was a good decision, because it took him about half a second to point out the inanity of the first question; namely, that all teams can’t hit a wall at the same time, because the number of losers always equals the number of winners. It’s reasonable to believe that Lavin didn’t mean literally all teams suffer in February, but some specificity would have helped. 

The first question still stands, however, if you realize what Lavin actually meant. He meant “this is the time of year when good teams hit a wall,” because really, how many basketball games with bad teams does Lavin watch? None, just like the rest of us (unless you’re a Vanderbilt fan). This intent releases him from the aforementioned logical problem, and allows for the possibility that bad teams benefit from the wall-hitting of the good ones. 

So, me being me, I decided to research the questions associated with Lavin’s statement.

Assorted Thoughts From An Epic Day Of Basketball

Sometime around 1:30 yesterday afternoon, as the Georgetown-Duke game was about to tip off and the Notre Dame-Syracuse affair came to a close, my friend and I articulated a common sentiment. We decided there was no excuse for any self-proclaimed sports fan to miss such a day of basketball. The usual exceptions applied; employment, family obligations, and medical issues counted as excused absences. But given the cold front sweeping across half the country and the exceptional lineup of games, my friend and I decided that any unoccupied sports fan worth his salt would be firmly planted in front of the television set for at least one contest. Yes, this was quite obviously self-congratulatory, but we were too busy enjoying the day to confront the vain nature of our proclamation.

Here are some assorted thoughts and observations from this amazing day.